My Field of 65 is complete...for now

With the last full week of the college basketball regular season upon us, here is who I think should be in the dance, with seedings (including major bias, of course):

1 seeds
1. Duke
2. Kansas
3. Syracuse
4. Wisconsin

2 Seeds
5. Purdue
6. Kansas State
7. Brigham Young
8. Ohio State

3 Seeds
9. West Virginia
10. Kentucky
11. Maryland
12. Missouri

4 Seeds
13. Texas
14. Florida State
15. Villanova
16. Baylor

5 Seeds
17. California
18. Clemson
19. Xavier
20. Michigan State

6 Seeds
21. Texas A&M
22. Vanderbilt
23. Pittsburgh
24. Butler

7 Seeds
25. Tennessee
26. Temple
27. Utah State
28. Nevada-Las Vegas

8 Seeds
29. Virginia Tech
30. Arizona State
31. New Mexico
32. Texas-El Paso

9 Seeds
33. Mississippi State
34. Old Dominion
35. Oklahoma State
36. Northern Iowa

10 Seeds
37. Florida
38. Gonzaga
39. San Diego State
40. Richmond

11 Seeds
41. Saint Mary's
42. Virginia Commonwealth
43. Memphis
44. Siena

12 Seeds
45. Alabama-Birmingham
46. Murray State
47. Marshall
48. Tulsa

13 seeds
49. Wichita State
50. Cornell
51. Rhode Island
52. Kent State

14 Seeds
53. Illinois State
54. Wofford
55. Louisiana Tech
56. Sam Houston State

15 Seeds
57. IUPUI
58. Harvard
59. Akron
60. Iona

16 Seeds
61. Morehead State
62. Fairfield
63. William & Mary
64. Coastal Carolina/Northern Colorado

There's already a good baker's dozen teams that have played well enough to be considered for NCAA berths, but there just aren't enough slots: Vermont, Appalachian State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Oakland, College of Charleston, Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook, Western Carolina, Morgan State, North Texas, Eastern Kentucky, Quinnipiac and Robert Morris.

Heading into the final week, all sorts of madness can happen, with some big teams firmly on the bubble, particularly Georgetown, Marquette and Georgia Tech. Louisville, Dayton, Washington, Wake Forest, Illinois, Mississippi, Notre Dame and Miami could also sneak in, but it'll be tough.

We're up to the 9 seeds now

It's been a busy week in college basketball as the regular season hits the home stretch. Hard to believe, but a lot of conference tournaments will get under way in about two weeks or so. That being said, I've updated my list of tourney selections, which is now up to 36 teams - seeds 1-9.

1 Seeds

Kansas

Duke

West Virginia

Syracuse

2 Seeds

Purdue

Brigham Young

Kentucky

Texas

3 Seeds

Ohio State

Kansas State

Baylor

Villanova

4 Seeds

Michigan State

Virginia Tech

Utah State

Temple

5 Seeds

Old Dominion

Butler

New Mexico

Gonzaga

6 Seeds

Richmond

Northern Iowa

Saint Mary's

Murray State

7 Seeds

Alabama-Birmingham

Siena

Cornell

Wichita State

8 Seeds

Wofford

Louisiana Tech

Akron

Northern Colorado

9 Seeds

Coastal Carolina

Vermont

Oakland

Morgan State

Some big games tonight:

Vanderbilt gets in with a win at Ole Miss (7 p.m. EST, ESPNU) - probably around a 7 seed

Wisconsin gets in with a win at Minnesota (9 p.m. EST, ESPN) - probably as a 1 seed

Pitt gets in with a win at Marquette (9 p.m. EST, ESPN2) - another probable 7 seed

Western Carolina gets in with a win at The Citadel (7:05 EST) - probably as a 10 seed

Ohio State crashes the party - debuts as a 3 seed

Ohio State's impressive win on the road against a surging Illinois squad punched their dance card today fo sho. After looking over Saturday's games I've reordered my seeding a little. Since Syracuse got beat today I may have to drop them down too; I still have to do my own amateur RPI'ing to determine.

The 29 teams I'm liking now:
1 Seeds
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Brigham Young

2 Seeds
Purdue
Texas
Kansas State
Kentucky

3 Seeds
Villanova
Ohio State
Old Dominion
Michigan State

4 Seeds
Virginia Tech
Utah State
Butler
New Mexico

5 Seeds
Temple
Gonzaga
Richmond
Murray State

6 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa
Cornell
Siena

7 Seeds
Wichita State
Louisiana Tech
Northern Colorado
Coastal Carolina

8 Seeds
Oakland
???
???
???

Tomorrow (Feb. 15) I'm keeping an eye on Morgan State as they host South Carolina State. Morgan State is unbeaten in the MEAC and they have a quality win at Arkansas. The MEAC is so bad that no matter what they'll have to win the conference tournament to get a bid, but in my fantasy world a win tomorrow puts them in the running for an at-large.

28 down, 37 to go...

Lots of great basketball today, and a lot of teams earned my "lock" status for today - locks as in no matter what they do the rest of the season they've earned a bid to the NCAA tourney as far as I'm concerned. Of course, as other teams get locked in and automatic bids start going out, there will probably be too many teams to make the list of 65...

But anyway, after seeing today's games and highlights, and without much analysis, here's my field, through the first 7 seeds.

1 Seeds
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Purdue

2 Seeds
Brigham Young
Kentucky
Kansas State - Debuts in the list today
Villanova - Drops from third to final 2 seed

3 Seeds - All brand new today
Texas
Old Dominion
Virginia Tech
Michigan State

4 Seeds
Utah State - Debuted today
New Mexico - Dropped from the last 2 seed
Butler - Dropped from the top 3 seed
Gonzaga - Dropped from the second 3 seed

5 Seeds
Temple - Debuted today
Northern Iowa - Dropped from the third 3 seed
Murray State - Down from the fourth 3 seed
Saint Mary's - Down from the top 4 seed

6 Seeds
Richmond - Debuted today
Siena - Down from the third 4 seed
Cornell - Down from the second 4 seed
Wichita State - Down from the fourth 4 seed

7 Seeds
Louisiana Tech - Debuted today
Northern Colorado - Debuted today
Coastal Carolina - Down from the top 5 seed
Oakland - Debuted today

Ohio State at Illinois is the Feb. 14 game of the day. Win and the Buckeyes probably rate a 3 seed from me.

Gonzaga's in

Gonzaga posted a pretty impressive win last night over a very good Saint Mary's team that I already had as an NCAA tourney participant. I think the win means the Zags have a foolproof argument for admission as well, regardless of how the rest of their season plays out. They jump in front of Northern Iowa on my list, which now looks like this after the other games from Feb. 11 are considered:

1 Seeds

Kansas

Duke

Syracuse

Purdue

2 Seeds

Brigham Young

Kentucky

Villanova

New Mexico

3 Seeds

Butler

Gonzaga

Northern Iowa

Murray State

4 Seeds

Saint Mary's

Cornell

Siena

Wichita State

5 Seeds

Coastal Carolina

???

???

???

If West Virginia can win at Pitt tonight, they're my next team in.

Saturday, I think Michigan State punches their ticket with a win at Penn State; UNLV gets an invite if they win at San Diego State; Kansas State is in if they beat Colorado; Texas gets in with a win over Nebraska; the winner of the Rhode Island-Temple game makes my list; Tulsa gets in by beating Memphis; and Virginia Tech punches its ticket with a win over rival UVA.

And then on Sunday, I think Ohio State locks in a spot with a win at Illinois. So by the close of the weekend, I could have nine more teams on my bracket list, filling it in halfway through the 7 Seeds.

Duke is in my Field of 65

Granted, UNC is not much of a team this year - though people seem to forget they started season ranked fourth in the polls. However, Duke has bounced back well from its loss to a very good Georgetown team and won on the road at its biggest rival in a hostile environment - as hostile as a bunch of wine-and-cheesers can get, anyway.

UNLV, however, choked, losing at home to New Mexico in what could have been a tourney invite clincher. Obviously I think they'll still get a bid, but they haven't earned it on my list yet.

And for the second day in a row, I have a new No. 1 seed. Duke joins Purdue at the top this week, pushing Kentucky and Brigham Young to 2 seeds.

So far:

1 Seeds

Kansas

Duke

Syracuse

Purdue

2 Seeds

Kentucky

Brigham Young

Villanova

Butler

3 Seeds

New Mexico

Saint Mary's

Northern Iowa

Cornell

4 Seeds

Murray State

Siena

Wichita State

Coastal Carolina

So that's a quarter of the field down. Gonzaga will join my list tomorrow if they knock off Saint Mary's at home tonight.

Purdue added to tourney projections

Purdue's impressive win at Michigan State last night locked up their NCAA tourney bid, in my opinion. They are now my final number 1 seed, booting BYU to the top 2 seed:

1 Seeds

Kansas

Syracuse

Kentucky

Purdue

2 Seeds

Brigham Young

Villanova

Butler

New Mexico

3 Seeds

Saint Mary's

Northern Iowa

Cornell

Murray State

4 Seeds

Siena

Wichita State

Coastal Carolina

???

If Duke beats North Carolina tonight and UNLV beats New Mexico, the Blue Devils and Runnin' Rebels make my field as well.

Updated tourney projections

Based on what I've seen and read, there are only 14 teams I'd extend an invite to as of right now, regardless of what happens the rest of the season.

1 Seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Brigham Young

2 Seeds
Villanova
Butler
New Mexico
Saint Mary's

3 Seeds
Northern Iowa
Cornell
Murray State
Siena

4 Seeds
Wichita State
Coastal Carolina
?
?

For me, the winner of tomorrow night's Purdue - Michigan State game is the next team in.

Time for the NCAA tourney watch...

So I like to populate my expected NCAA field via the most dire predictions possible. In other words, if Team X lost the rest of its games from here on out, would they still make the tournament? Given that equation, here are the teams I think are in no matter what happens the rest of their seasons, and here's how I'd seed them so far:

1 Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. Brigham Young
4. Kentucky

2 Seeds
5. Villanova
6. New Mexico
7. Northern Iowa
8. Murray State

3 Seeds
9. Coastal Carolina

Yeah, yeah, it's totally unrealistic, but it'll change day-to-day as the conference tournaments draw nearer. I'm just having some fun, but typically my final 65 aren't a whole lot different from the actual field. We'll see how close I get this year.