Saturday, February 13, 2010

28 down, 37 to go...

Lots of great basketball today, and a lot of teams earned my "lock" status for today - locks as in no matter what they do the rest of the season they've earned a bid to the NCAA tourney as far as I'm concerned. Of course, as other teams get locked in and automatic bids start going out, there will probably be too many teams to make the list of 65...

But anyway, after seeing today's games and highlights, and without much analysis, here's my field, through the first 7 seeds.

1 Seeds
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Purdue

2 Seeds
Brigham Young
Kentucky
Kansas State - Debuts in the list today
Villanova - Drops from third to final 2 seed

3 Seeds - All brand new today
Texas
Old Dominion
Virginia Tech
Michigan State

4 Seeds
Utah State - Debuted today
New Mexico - Dropped from the last 2 seed
Butler - Dropped from the top 3 seed
Gonzaga - Dropped from the second 3 seed

5 Seeds
Temple - Debuted today
Northern Iowa - Dropped from the third 3 seed
Murray State - Down from the fourth 3 seed
Saint Mary's - Down from the top 4 seed

6 Seeds
Richmond - Debuted today
Siena - Down from the third 4 seed
Cornell - Down from the second 4 seed
Wichita State - Down from the fourth 4 seed

7 Seeds
Louisiana Tech - Debuted today
Northern Colorado - Debuted today
Coastal Carolina - Down from the top 5 seed
Oakland - Debuted today

Ohio State at Illinois is the Feb. 14 game of the day. Win and the Buckeyes probably rate a 3 seed from me.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Gonzaga's in

Gonzaga posted a pretty impressive win last night over a very good Saint Mary's team that I already had as an NCAA tourney participant. I think the win means the Zags have a foolproof argument for admission as well, regardless of how the rest of their season plays out. They jump in front of Northern Iowa on my list, which now looks like this after the other games from Feb. 11 are considered:

1 Seeds
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Purdue

2 Seeds
Brigham Young
Kentucky
Villanova
New Mexico

3 Seeds
Butler
Gonzaga
Northern Iowa
Murray State

4 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Cornell
Siena
Wichita State

5 Seeds
Coastal Carolina
???
???
???

If West Virginia can win at Pitt tonight, they're my next team in.

Saturday, I think Michigan State punches their ticket with a win at Penn State; UNLV gets an invite if they win at San Diego State; Kansas State is in if they beat Colorado; Texas gets in with a win over Nebraska; the winner of the Rhode Island-Temple game makes my list; Tulsa gets in by beating Memphis; and Virginia Tech punches its ticket with a win over rival UVA.

And then on Sunday, I think Ohio State locks in a spot with a win at Illinois. So by the close of the weekend, I could have nine more teams on my bracket list, filling it in halfway through the 7 Seeds.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Duke is in my Field of 65

Granted, UNC is not much of a team this year - though people seem to forget they started season ranked fourth in the polls. However, Duke has bounced back well from its loss to a very good Georgetown team and won on the road at its biggest rival in a hostile environment - as hostile as a bunch of wine-and-cheesers can get, anyway.

UNLV, however, choked, losing at home to New Mexico in what could have been a tourney invite clincher. Obviously I think they'll still get a bid, but they haven't earned it on my list yet.

And for the second day in a row, I have a new No. 1 seed. Duke joins Purdue at the top this week, pushing Kentucky and Brigham Young to 2 seeds.

So far:
1 Seeds
Kansas
Duke
Syracuse
Purdue

2 Seeds
Kentucky
Brigham Young
Villanova
Butler

3 Seeds
New Mexico
Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa
Cornell

4 Seeds
Murray State
Siena
Wichita State
Coastal Carolina

So that's a quarter of the field down. Gonzaga will join my list tomorrow if they knock off Saint Mary's at home tonight.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Purdue added to tourney projections

Purdue's impressive win at Michigan State last night locked up their NCAA tourney bid, in my opinion. They are now my final number 1 seed, booting BYU to the top 2 seed:

1 Seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Purdue

2 Seeds
Brigham Young
Villanova
Butler
New Mexico

3 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Northern Iowa
Cornell
Murray State

4 Seeds
Siena
Wichita State
Coastal Carolina
???

If Duke beats North Carolina tonight and UNLV beats New Mexico, the Blue Devils and Runnin' Rebels make my field as well.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Updated tourney projections

Based on what I've seen and read, there are only 14 teams I'd extend an invite to as of right now, regardless of what happens the rest of the season.

1 Seeds
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Brigham Young

2 Seeds
Villanova
Butler
New Mexico
Saint Mary's

3 Seeds
Northern Iowa
Cornell
Murray State
Siena

4 Seeds
Wichita State
Coastal Carolina
?
?

For me, the winner of tomorrow night's Purdue - Michigan State game is the next team in.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Time for the NCAA tourney watch...

So I like to populate my expected NCAA field via the most dire predictions possible. In other words, if Team X lost the rest of its games from here on out, would they still make the tournament? Given that equation, here are the teams I think are in no matter what happens the rest of their seasons, and here's how I'd seed them so far:

1 Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. Brigham Young
4. Kentucky

2 Seeds
5. Villanova
6. New Mexico
7. Northern Iowa
8. Murray State

3 Seeds
9. Coastal Carolina

Yeah, yeah, it's totally unrealistic, but it'll change day-to-day as the conference tournaments draw nearer. I'm just having some fun, but typically my final 65 aren't a whole lot different from the actual field. We'll see how close I get this year.